How long till HD becomes old like SD?

From Wikipedia: Ultra High Definition TV

"The final goal is for UHDTV to be available in domestic homes, though the timeframe for this happening varies between 2016 to 2020 (mainly based on technical reasons concerning storage and broadcast distribution of content).

The BBC intends to trial UHDTV during the 2012 Summer Olympics, erecting 15 m display screens at two or three locations."

Between 6 and 10 years.
We have to put some money away for savings in order to buy a 4K camera between 2016-2020, maybe earlier.

UHDTV technology will need other technologies to develop alongside it to make it anywhere near viable. A single uncompressed UHDTV channel is 24Gb/s, and while current state of the art compression technology gets the datastream down to 120Mb/s that figure would still make DTH satellite distribution costs far too expensive. 120Mb/s would use four entire satellite transponders (or the same bandwidth as about 32 SD MPEG-2 channels, or 16 HD channels encoded using MPEG-4) .

Internet distribution would appear to be the answer, but until much more investment by the comms suppliers is put into fibre to the cabinet (FTTC) or fibre to the home (FTTH) technology, a huge segment of the on-line community can't even watch a You Tube video without repeated buffering breaks. The UK government, for example, has specified the broadband "universal service" (i.e. available to everyone) at 2Mb/s, but the deadline for the carriers to meet that obligation has already been put back once, to 2015. Can't see there's any hope that that deadline will be met, either.

The picture – if a dreadful pun can be excused – in the highly connected countries will be different of course, where less investment will be needed to bring faster broadband speeds.

Also, to take advantage of the format the screen will need to be massive. Few people have the money or the room (or a wife who would allow a truly massive TV) to build a large enough UHDTV user base to make the investment in the broadcasting infrastructure viable.

UHDTV will have a niche application of screening important national events at public gatherings, and the 2012 Olympics will be a good test if the funding for it doesn't get cut. I reckon that live broadcasts of major sporting events to suitably equipped cinemas will be the first commercial application of UHDTV, but without a commercial application where all parties in the distribution chain can make some money the technology is going nowhere at the moment.

Almost exactly a year ago (29th September 2010) the BBC and NHK tested UHDTV technology with a live link between Television Centre and Japan. Item from the BBC's Click technology programme here:

http://www.wikio.com/video/uhdtv-super-high-vision-tv-vision-5642244

Paul.

Here, I know of TV stations that did not have the money to change to HD. They changed their signal to digital but if forced to go HD they will file for bankruptcy. I cannot imagine how much more this UHDTV equipment will cost.


http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CtSasGs12dM

It's a long time away. Of course the companies that will make money on the conversion are pushing it and making it sound like it will happen sooner than later. Heck even simple 3D tv is a long way away and longer before the consumer decides they need to buy and upgrade. HD is still not the standard on tv's and as it grows in popularity HD will be a standard for much longer than the industry wants it to be. It's all about making money, the consummer in general is more than happy with HD. In fact many HD programs are too sharp with too much clarity already making viewing uncomforatable. As a stock shooter I would not worry too much about saving money for the upgrade yet. I agree, many broadcasters had a real problem upgrading to digital. The government will be less likely to fund the conversion with boxes like they did last time.

I agree that it most certainly not will happen soon. Look at the economy situation in US and Europe. Countries are almost insolvent. Who got the investment money?
On the other hand, I think it is wise for stock shooters to be ahead of this. Shooting in a higher quality than todays standard will make our stock archive sellable in the future too.

With the push to higher resolution displays so "soon" after the introduction of HD what would you say is the "shelf life" of each type of HD? Like how long will Ultra HDTV stay on the scene before it gets bumped out as passe? And ditto for each technology that comes later.

PerJohan makes a great point. Capturing or creating your work at resolutions higher than what is currently in demand makes sense if you have that ability. For me I can re-generate each of my 60 deep zooms to 20,480 x 20,480 pixels.

8 minutes.

I agree it is a long way off, but it certainly isn't anything to dread. It will open up a whole new need pool so we can merrily go out and re-shoot all the footage we have online now. Job security.

There are many poorer countries in the World that still use SD!

HD still doesn't have the "mass market" in many European countries.

TV stations have just invested a truck load in HD - my guess is the 4K movies and sports will be the next thing in a few years!