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Usa-Economy/dudley Ny Fed's Dudley Says June Rate Hike Still In Play Despi...

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By Reuters

NEW YORK CITY, NEW YORK, UNITED STATES (APRIL 8, 2015) (REUTERS) NEW YORK FEDERAL RESERVE PRESIDENT WILLIAM DUDLEY ON STAGE WITH REUTERS EDITOR-IN-CHIEF STEVE ADLER (SOUNDBITE) (English) STEVE ADLER, REUTERS EDITOR-IN-CHIEF, SAYING: "Would you agree that the March report reduces the likelihood of a midyear rate? Or wouldn't you agree?" (SOUNDBITE) (English) WILLIAM DUDLEY, NEW YORK FEDERAL RESERVE CHAIRMAN, SAYING: "If you look at the broad set of data that we've gotten in recent weeks and months, the data has very much surprised to the downside. So it's not just the March payroll employment report, it's things like the Institute of Supply Management Manufacturing Index, it's orders, single family housing starts, there's a whole bunch of things that I think have disappointed and clearly if the economy is growing slower and there's less pressure on the labor market and if inflation is still well below the Fed's two percent objective, it would be reasonable to think that the timing of the Fed's first rate hike might be a little further off in time." (SOUNDBITE) (English) STEVE ADLER, REUTERS EDITOR-IN-CHIEF, SAYING: "Any suggestion of how far off?" (SOUNDBITE) (English) WILLIAM DUDLEY, NEW YORK FEDERAL RESERVE CHAIRMAN, SAYING: "As we've said, it depends on the data. I could imagine circumstances where a June rate hike could still be in play. If the next employment report is very strong, if wage inflation continues to drift upward, if the second quarter GDP is bouncing quite sharply from what looks to be only about one percent in the first quarter, you could conceivably get to a point that by the June meeting you were reasonably confident that inflation on a medium-term horizon was going to go back to two percent, you might by that time see further improvement in the labor market." DUDLEY ON STAGE SPEAKING WITH ADLER (SOUNDBITE) (English) STEVE ADLER, REUTERS EDITOR-IN-CHIEF, SAYING: "Is the risk greater of moving too soon or is it greater moving too late?" (SOUNDBITE) (English) WILLIAM DUDLEY, NEW YORK FEDERAL RESERVE CHAIRMAN, SAYING: "As I've said a number of times I think that there are reasons to err on the side of being a little late than err on the side of being a little early and the reason for that is, if you go a little early and then you lift off and then you have to reverse course and you're stuck back at the zero lower bound, and I think then you've lost some credibility in terms of monetary policy. There's also, I think, the experience with lifting off just over the last few years has been not so great around the world. People have tried to lift off and they've had to reverse course, so that might also argue for a bit of caution. And the third reason it argues for a bit of caution is that we have a lot of long term unemployed in the economy and it's really important to try to get those people back to work, because if they don't get back to work in the next couple of years their job skills are going to atrophy and that can reduce the productive capacity of the economy. So I think that there are strong arguments for being a little on the late side, rather than the early side." DUDLEY AND ADLER ON STAGE (SOUNDBITE) (English) STEVE ADLER, REUTERS EDITOR-IN-CHIEF, SAYING: "But what would be the harm in terms of independence of having your position being subject to Senate confirmation?" (SOUNDBITE) (English) WILLIAM DUDLEY, NEW YORK FEDERAL RESERVE CHAIRMAN, SAYING: "I mean I've said this to Senator Reid directly and I've said it publicly, this is the prerogative of Congress. If Congress wants to make the president of the New York Fed subject to presidential appointment and Senate confirmation, I'm fine with it. It's completely up to them and if they do that I'll be completely comfortable with that decision." INTERVIEW ENDS TO APPLAUSE
Dateline: 2015

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